Giesen Perspective

Politics, State Finances, and Transportation

DATE: June 10, 2007

TWO DAYS TO THE PRIMARY

Less than two days to the primary elections in this year’s legislative races. There are several significant contests the outcome of which could change the face of the State Senate. On the House side the possibility of a major shift is less likely, but there could be a subtle shift toward the middle.

As you may remember, three middle-of-the-road senior Republican members of the “powerful” Senate Finance Committee (SFC) announced their retirements earlier this year, and there has been much speculation on who would replace them. In addition, two senior GOP members of the SFC, Henrico Senator Walter Stosch and Augusta County Senator Emmett Hanger, both with centralist philosophies, have tough contests from the ultra-conservative wing of the party.

There are three other Republican Senators with primary challengers, but most political observers feel the incumbents, Senators Marty E. Williams (1st District--Newport News), Fred Quayle (13^th District--Suffolk) and Brandon Bell (22^nd District--Roanoke County), have comfortable leads and should be re-elected.

Meanwhile, the Democrats are out trying hard to field a record number of candidates. They are optimistic considering their recent statewide victories. There is clear evidence that Governor Tim Kaine, Democrat State Chairman Dickie Cranwell, and the party’s most recent victor, U.S. Senator Jim Webb, are encouraging people to contest Republican held seats in both chambers but primarily in the State Senate.

There are three Democrat Senate primaries. One of them is for the nomination in the 13^th District where incumbent Fred Quayle is expected to win the Republican primary. There is a Democrat contest in the 39^th District (Part of Fairfax and Prince William Counties) where the winner will run against one-term Senator, Republican Jay O’Brien.

The other Democrat Senatorial primary has attracted the most interest from the political writers. This one in Richmond pits Delegate Don McEachin against veteran Senator Bennie Lambert for the 9^th District Seat. Bennie endorsed Republican George Allen in last year’s U.S. Senate race. George had responded to a number of Bennie’s requests for support for traditionally black universities in Virginia. This African-American legislator felt he should return the favor with his support. Unfortunately his challenger doesn’t agree with that philosophy and is wrapping Bennie’s disloyalty to his Democrat Party around his neck like a milestone. Bennie’s reputation in Richmond is excellent, but in this very solid Democrat district, party loyalty is very critical to the voters. Political observers in the capital city fear that the incumbent in this case is in real trouble. There may not be enough independent and Republican voters who will venture into this Democrat Primary to rescue Bennie.

IN THE CROSS HAIRS

The two Republican senate primaries that are “in the cross hairs,” as one political writer put it, both pit “no-tax-increases under any circumstances” challengers against incumbents who voted for the 2004 Tax Reform bill.

In the 12^th District (Parts of Henrico and Goochland Counties and part of the City of Richmond), attorney Joseph E Blackburn, Jr. is running hard against the Senate Majority Leader, Walter Stosch. This new comer for elected office has the backing of former 7^th District Congressman, Tom Bliley, and former Governor, Jim Gilmore. Most of those who ran campaigns for these past Republican office holders have organized and are running the Blackburn efforts. It is no surprise that Joe’s slogan stresses “a conservative we count on.”

In this basically Republican District the challenger Joe Blackburn is claiming Senator Stosch has forgotten his Republican roots. The challenger’s main attacks have been against Stosch’s support for the Democrat Governor Warner’s “largest tax increase in Virginia history.”

Senator Stosch has been campaigning almost constantly since the end of the General Assembly session. He has received the endorsements of U.S. Senator John Warner and former Governor and U.S. Senator George Allen. He is emphasizing his seniority and his record. Is has not backed away from his vote on the 2004 bill, however, he puts a much different interpretation on it than does Joe Blackburn’s forces. Walter points out the adjustments the legislation made in income tax exemptions and deductions which helped married couples and lower income families. He notes that the bill accomplished a long time Republican goal of removing the state’s share of the sales and use tax on groceries.

The Stosch campaign has recognized the growing number of elderly and retired people residing in Western Henrico. A major effort has been made to show the favorable impact that legislation pushed by the Republican Senate Leader has had on behalf of senior citizens. In addition to the removal of the sales tax on food for home consumption, Walter’s literature and speeches point out the removal of the state income tax on social security benefits, the law which increased the income levels for seniors to qualify for local property tax relief, the repeal of the so called death tax (the estate tax), and the elimination of the tax on non-prescription drugs. All of these were either sponsored by or pushed through the legislature with the help of Senator Stosch.

One document which Senator Stosch, with his accounting background, likes to share with his audiences and the media shows that since 1990, if you include the “Car Tax Reimbursement Program,” the net impact of all the tax changes enacted by the legislature have resulted in tax decreases of $1.1 billion in FY05, $1.1 billion in FY06 and a projected decrease of $1.6 billion a year in FY07 and FY08. Unfortunately this “scorecard” is too detailed for most people to understand. It is way too complicated to cover in a 20 second sound bite on the news casts. It is much easier to report the comments that the 2004 Tax Bill increased state revenue by $1.4 billion. Frequently, Joe follows suit with a statement that, “Senator Stosch voted for over $3 billion in tax increases.” Funny how those TV ads fail to mention this was over a 25 years of legislative services and it never mentions the tax reforms and decreases that voted on over the same span of time!

In the Valley’s 24^th Senatorial District the local Republican organization leaders have taken a similar stand to those in the 12^th District. Emmett Hanger hasn’t been enough of a Republican! Heaven forbid, he has voted for tax increases. The overall results of his votes don’t matter. He hasn’t signed the “no-tax-increase pledge” demanded by the ultra-conservative right-wing of the party; therefore he is not a loyal Republican. His opponent, first time candidate and businessman Scott Sayer, of course, has signed “the pledge.” In several debates the challenger has shown he doesn’t fully understand state finances, but that doesn’t matter. He will not raise taxes (under any circumstances!). His TV ads sound very much like those being run in the 12^th District. Now isn't that a strange?

Interestingly, all of the local elected Republican supervisors, councilmen/women,

and constitutional officers, who may understand state finances a little better than the average businessman, are backing Emmett. Congressman, Bob Goodlatte, has appeared in the area on Emmett’s behalf and the House of Delegates leadership, Speaker Bill Howell and Majority Leader Morgan Griffith, along with Delegate Steve Landes have lent their endorsements to the incumbent’s campaign. Despite this support, many of the Senator’s citizen supporters are firmly convinced Emmett is in real trouble.

Shortly after the end of the General Assembly session, political science Professor Bob Holsworth from VCU stated that both Senator Stosch and Senator Hanger were in danger of losing their senate seats if only the “hard core Republicans” voted in the June 12 primaries. Virginia’s open primary laws, of course, allow any registered citizen to vote in a primary of either party as long as they only vote once. In both the 12th and 24th Senate Districts, which were made very Republican by the 2001 redistricting, these Republican Primaries will, in all probability, decide the state senators for the next four years. The effectiveness of the turn out the vote efforts for the incumbent senators will make the difference. In the 12th District, Stosch's organization is solid in this respect. In the 24th District, Hanger's is suspect. On Tuesday, we will know.

THE THREE RETIREES' SEATS

In the Northern Neck's 28th Senatorial District, retiring Senator John Chichester strongly backed Richard Stuart. Stuart was described by the press and other observers as "the most moderate of the four" (Republicans) who sought the nomination in a "firehouse canvas." Stuart outpolled his three opponents by securing significant majorities in the counties of the northern neck. He, also, however, received more votes than expected in the Stafford area from which the other three Republicans aspirants hailed. The endorsement of Speaker Bill Howell certainly helped Stuart's cause in the "more urban part of the district."

Some were surprised at The Speaker's support of Richard Stuart over the more conservative candidates. However, when one looks at the district and the Democrat candidate, former Delegate Albert Pollard, from the Northern Neck, the "practical politics" of the situation indicated the Republican candidate needed to come from the Northern Neck if the party was going to have any chance to hold the seat. One of Bill Howell's strengths is his knowledge of practical politics in his part of the state.

Other Republican politicians in Virginia, may not be quite as astute. Lt. Governor Bill Bolling supported John Van Hoy, one of the losers, who along with another of the losers, Jon Myers, conducted "reasonable campaigns" and both have pledged their support to Richard Stuart. They are both aware of the importance of this district remaining in the Republican column if the party is going to continue to have a majority in the State Senate. The fourth candidate, Joe Graziano, the favorite of the ultra-right of the Republican Party and a severe critic of John Chichester throughout the spring campaign, has not to-date, indicated he would support the nominee.

This will be an interesting race to watch come the fall. University of Mary Washington political analyst, Stephen Farnsworth, calls this a "must-win seat" for the Democrats if they hope to take over the State Senate. He noted, "This district is at significant risk of changing hands in this election cycle, and if the Republicans had nominated a far-right candidate it might have ensured the election of a Democrat." Now we have two life long friends with similar ideologies competing for a seat in the Senate with statewide implications.

In Southside Virginia, Senator Charles Hawkins is retiring from the 19th District Senate Seat he has held since 1981. The counties of Pittsylvania, Franklin, and part of Campbell and all of Danville City make up the district. Delegate Robert Hurt, who hails from the same small Pittsylvania community of Chatham as does the retiring Senator, has already secured the nomination as the Republican candidate. Robert's voting record (he was one of the seventeen "problem solving Delegates" who broke with the House GOP Caucus on the tax bill in 2004) and his stated position on issues, indicate he is very close to the incumbent Senator in his political philosophy. He will in all likelihood be the next Senator from the 19th.

The 27th Senate District has been described by some as, geographically, the truly "northern Virginia" District. Frederick County is north of most of the area of the state called NOVA. The District also contains all of Clarke County and the City of Winchester, and parts of Fauquier and Loudoun Counties. The outspoken Russ Potts is retiring and is not pleased with the choices in the Republican Primary. The two contestants in Tuesday's voting are Jill Holtzman-Vogel from Warrenton and Mark D. Tate from Purcellville. Warrenton is in Fauquier and Purcellville in Loudoun. The Democrat candidate, Karen Schultz, is from the vote rich Winchester/Frederick area and bills herself as a moderate. Isn't it surprising that the two people competing for the Republican nomination are trying to out conservative each other and both have been critical of Russ Potts.

Mark Tate has been indicted on eleven charges of violating election filing laws. He claims the charges are politically motivated by his opponent. Potts has been publicly stating (isn't that unusual for Russ?) that he is not pleased with either Republican and may support the Democrat unless a good friend and supporter of his, Donald Marro from Clarke County (the Plains), enters the race as an independent. Marro has said he is "100 percent in the race." With the fight for the control of the Senate, if this turns into a three way race, it could be a key race in the fall.

INTERESTING HOUSE PRIMARIES

FIRST THE REPUBLICANS

There are two intriguing Republican House Primaries on Tuesday. In a district that overlaps the 12th Senate District, there is "the battle of the millionaires named Jimmie and Jimmy." The early candidate out of the starting box to replace retiring Delegate Jack Reid in the 72nd House District was Jimmie Massie, a wealthy investment banker. He has the backing of Delegate Jack Reid and the Henrico party establishment. He has dutifully signed the "no-tax-increase pledge." He is the hope of the ultra-conservatives who control the party organization.

The other Jimmy is also a very well-to-do investment banker. Both of these gentlemen have been active Republicans and both have raised “beau coup" money for the party and various candidates. U. S. Senator John Warner has jumped in and endorsed Jimmy Wheat. This Jimmy has made no secret of his need for Independents and Democrats to come to the polls this Tuesday and vote for him. After all, he is running from the "middle" which the majority of Virginians claim as their political base. The challenge facing Jimmy’s forces is activating those of that "middle" philosophy to come and vote in a Republican Primary.

The primary is between these two James's even though there is a third candidate on the primary ballot. His few signs and one mailing distinguish him as "Dr. Bill." He has to do this since Subramanian, even for a physician, is a tough name to remember. The winner of the primary will have opposition in November from the Democrats, Henrico businessman Thomas F. Herbert. Rather bitter, hard fought primaries often give rise to opposition even in heavily gerrymandered districts.

In this 72nd District, Massie is considered the odds on favorite. He has endorsed Joe Blackburn for the 12th Senate District seat. A massive election-day turn out from the Stosch forces could upset the common wisdom.

Another interesting Republican House Primary is for the nomination to run for the seat vacated by the House Transportation Committee Chairman and Appropriations Committee member, Leo Wardrup. In this middle part of Virginia Beach, the 83rd District battle is between a "moderate-conservative", Chris P. Stolle, M.D., brother to State Senator Ken Stolle, and a “conservative-conservative," Carolyn D. Weems, a Virginia Beach School Board member. Weems is being quietly backed by the retiring Delegate. Both sides have been doing more name calling than talking about the issues. Again the turnout will be the deciding factor. Because of the rather bitter infighting between these candidates this could be a swing district come November's general election.

NOW THE DEMOCRATS

There are five Democrat Party House Primaries on Tuesday. Out in the far Southwest--Buchanan, Russell and Tazewell Counties form the 3rd House of Delegates District and the nomination last year for a special election saw Danny C. Bowling get the Democrat nod and become the Delegate, at least for a year. But in the "Fighting Ninth" anything can happen. This year the primary is a rematch and last year's loser, Mickey G. McGlothlin, is spending big bucks to try and get the 2007 nomination. McGlothlin, a native of Grundy, is a well known political name (Don McGlothlin was the Delegate from that area for 20 years) in the district but Bowling has the backing of Governor Tim Kaine and in this Democrat District a endorsement from a Democrat Governor is very important. Bowling should again prevail.

Inside the beltway in Northern Virginia there is only one House Seat held by a Republican and with the retirement of the Chairman of the Appropriations Committee, Vince Callahan, the 34th District Seat is likely to go to the winner of Tuesday's Democrat Primary. Watch carefully since either R. C. Rip Sullivan or Margaret G. Vanderhye, the contestants for the Democrat nomination for this seat will probably be in Richmond in January. In NOVA the women turn out for primaries, so the political pundits are picking Vanderhye in a close race.

In the 40th House District, a Fairfax district south of the Beltway, Republican Tim Hugo will have formidable opposition in the General Election from either Morris A. Meyer, Jr., or Rex A. Simmons. While both are relatively newcomers to the district, in Northern Virginia, that isn't a detriment. So whoever wins the Democratic Primary on Tuesday is assured a very well financed campaign this fall. The 40th District is a targeted district by the Democrat State Party.

Out of all of the primary races in both parties, the Democratic Primary contest for the seat vacated by Don McEachin's pursuit of a State Senate Seat has drawn the most contestants. No less than five people are seeking the Democrat nomination to represent the 74th House District Seat (This seat takes in Hopewell, Charles City County and parts of Richmond, Henrico and Prince George.). With five individuals fighting for votes it's likely the winner will have a very small plurality. When you look at the spread of the district and the number of people splitting the votes it is probable that former Delegate Floyd H. Miles, Sr., who Don McEachin unseated in the last election, will be re-nominated.

Down in Tidewater (Parts of Portsmouth, Norfolk, Chesapeake, and Suffolk), longtime incumbent Delegate Johnny S. Joannou, has a very tough, well financed primary challenger in Henry D. Light for the 79th House District Democratic nomination. Former Governor Mark Warner is one of Light's main supporters. Joannou was the lone Democratic Delegate to vote against the Governor's 2004 Tax Bill. It very well may have been that Johnny was giving his vote to the majority of the House Appropriations Committee on which he sits courtesy of a Republican Speaker! Nonetheless, reports are that Henry Light has a very good chance of upsetting the incumbent in a very tight race.

So, wait until Tuesday evening or early Wednesday morning to see how these primaries might change the make up of the 2008 General Assembly.

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Arthur R. Giesen, Jr., fondly known as Pete, served in the Virginia House of Delegates for over 30 years. He represented the citizens of the Central Shenandoah Valley surviving four different district realignments. During his career he represented Augusta, Bath, Highland and part of Rockingham County and the Cities of Staunton and Waynesboro.

Following his career as an elected official, Pete assisted Lt. Governor John H. Hager as his Chief of Staff.

Pete now keeps an eye on Virginia government and assists many clients with his unique perspective on the workings of the Virginia General Assembly and its relationship with the other branches of state government.

THE GIESEN PERSPECTIVE