Fall Brings Football and Politics—To Which are People Listening?

 

DATE:           Friday, October 21, 2005 

 

ON THE STATEWIDE RACES

The much publicized TV debate between the two major party candidates for Governor took place and the next day, from what the media told us, you would have thought it had a terrific viewing audience.  The radio commentator on the powerful WRVA-AM station in Richmond announced all of the regular Sunday evening programs had a lower rating than THE DEBATE.  Prof. Larry Sabato, from UVA’s Center for Politics, one of the organizers of the debate and the programs MC, must have written the press release.  It turns out the FOX broadcast of the Redskins football game had almost twice the audience in Virginia than the debate had.  Now there may have been many homes which did as the Giesen household did.  You know, the TV set in the den had the debate on while the one in the Sun Room had the football game. 

The most telling thing was the talk in the halls of the General Assembly Building the next week.  It seemed to many of us “observers” that there was a great deal more concern and conversation about the Redskins first game loss and how they “almost pulled it out on the two point conversion attempt…” than there was about what Jerry or Tim had said or hadn’t said on Sunday evening. There were a couple of comments about “where was Potts?”  But then there was not even much of that. 

The consensus in the state Halls of Government is this continues to be a distant, remote campaign.  “Apathetic” is the term most attributed to the potential voters in the statewide races.  I happened to meet one of the panelists in the Debate while shopping in our neighborhood the Saturday after the debate.  We agreed there doesn’t seem to be much interest in the campaign.  To test our theory, we mutually asked all the clerks in the store who were the candidates for Governor this year.  Most just said they didn’t know.  One, however, was better informed, she was sure Doug Wilder was on one of the tickets!

The campaigns have 2 ½ weeks to stir things up, but this is unlikely to happen.  People just don’t seem to care. So the outcome may well hinge on how well each camp does in getting their “saints” to the polls on November 8.  In the past the GOP has had the best organization to accomplish this.  This year may very well be different. 

A bit of personal history to illustrate why I think Kilgore will have trouble with getting the Republican vote out on Election Day.  It will take an extreme effort in Northern Virginia in particular.  Back in the dark ages, (OK so it was only in 1974 but when you work with some 25 to 30 year olds, they make you feel like that was the “dark ages”) some us ran in solidly Republican districts.  There was no doubt the State Senate seat for which I was running in a special election would vote Republican.  After all the Washington scene would not impact a Virginia election, now would it?  Nixon and Watergate were miles away.  Maybe they were in our minds but not in the minds of the voters!  A poor campaign and the influence of a very unpopular President with a Watergate hanging over his head were too much to overcome even in a solidly Republican District.

Kilgore faces much the same challenge.  A well run, hard hitting, positive campaign might pull it out for him.  But this has not been the case.  One of the insiders for all of the statewide GOP campaigns said it best, “Bush’s drop in popularity with both the liberals and the conservatives in NOVA are just killing our candidates.”  So with a campaign that most feel has not been well run, and the George W. factor, it looks bleak for Kilgore at this juncture.

Then there is the other W factor.  Mark Warner’s popularity is still ascending.  He is hitting the stump hard for Tim Kaine.  He has made five personal appearances with the Democrat Candidate this past week and from the local newspaper accounts all of them were “extremely well attended by excited, enthusiastic crowds!”  Earlier one of the astute state political analyst (no, no it wasn’t me, it was one of those academic types) observed Governor Warner won’t go out hard for Kaine unless he is reasonably sure he has a good chance of winning.  So Kilgore is faced with a double case of W-Trouble—George W. being a negative for him and Mark W. being a positive for Kaine.

If Kaine keeps up his momentum and the conservative Republicans sit on their hands (as I expect them to do) and a number of moderate Republicans vote for Potts (as I expect them to do) and Warner’s influence helps motivate the local Democrats “to get out our vote,” (as I expect it to do), then Tim Kaine will be Governor-elect on Nov. 9.

 

THE POTTS FACTOR OR NON-FACTOR

 

One other note on this race:  people have questioned the polls on Russ Potts saying how could his numbers be dropping.  A number of people have said to me, “Potts is the only one of the three who’s making any sense, but he can’t win so I’ll have to make a choice between two bad choices.”  This is a common feeling when voters start thinking about actually voting for a third party candidate.  So I don’t expect Russ to get more than about 7.5% of the votes cast (and the total cast in this election may be the smallest percent of registered voters in decades.)

 

THE OTHER TWO STATEWIDE RACES

 

In the other two statewide races, the results might be the same IF the Democrat candidates had the funds to become better known.  However, in both of those races, the Republican candidates started way out front and had stayed that way.  The negative factors in the top races will filter down some but not enough to elect Leslie Byrne or Creigh Deeds.  So the majority opinion among the prognosticators is Bill Bolling and Bob McDonnell will be victorious on November 8.

 

ARE ALL 100 HOUSE SEATS REALLY UP FOR ELECTION?

 

It is true that all of the House seats are on the election ballots this November 8.  However, only about 10 of them are, as the political pundits are apt to say, “in play.”

Those where there could be some “upsets” include--
District 6—Bland County and parts of Giles, Pulaski, Wythe, and Tazewell—where Republican Anne Crockett-Stark is giving incumbent Democrat Benny Keister a run for his money.

District 13—Part of Prince William and Part of Loudoun—where conservative Republican incumbent Bob Marshall is facing a well financed campaign from Democrat Bruce Roemmelt.  This one may be wishful thinking on the Democrats part.

District 32—Part of Loudoun County—Democrat challenger David Poisson is a popular guy in a district that might be influenced by the happenings in D.C. If so, incumbent ultra-conservative Richard “Dick” Black could be upset in a close race.

District 52—Part of Prince William County—Another district under the influence of

What’s happening north of the Potomac, which is spelling trouble for freshman Republican Jeff Frederick.  Democrat Barg is running a well financed campaign with the help of several Democrat PAC’s including the Governor’s AND some funds from the Virginia Leadership Committee.

District 67—A pretty solid Republican district taking in part of Fairfax and Loudoun Counties, where incumbent Gary Reese was ousted in the GOP Primary by Chris S. Craddock, who is now having trouble in the general election with a hard charging popular Democrat, Chuck Caputo.  With a Libertarian candidate also in the race it’s a little harder to pick, but the pundits are suggesting this may go for the D’s.

 

THE OPEN SEATS

 

District 15—The central part of the Shenandoah Valley (Page, Shenandoah, Rappahannock and part of Rockingham) from where Republican Allen Louderback retired and the Republican nominee, Todd Gilbert, is facing a rather strong challenge from Democrat Jim Blubaugh. The Washington influence is lessened west of the Blue Ridge so this should stay in the GOP Column.

District 26—Part of Rockingham County and the City of Harrisonburg—the Republicans nominated Matt Lohr to replace the retiring Glenn Weatherholtz and he should prevail, although the Democrat nominee, Lowell Fulk, is strong in Harrisonburg.  The larger vote is in Rockingham which prides itself in voting 70 to 73 % Republicans (even in adverse times!)

District 37—The city of Fairfax and part of the county—Chap Peterson, The Democrat incumbent decided to run for his party’s nomination for Lt. Gov. He didn’t quite make it, but his party’s nominee David Bulova should defeat the Republican John Mason particularly considering the location of the district.

District 41—Another part of Fairfax County which elected Republican Jim Dillard time and time again and will probably elect one of his former aides, Dave Marsden, to replace him.  Oh, did I mention, Dave is the Democrat nominee, endorsed by his former boss!  Michael Golden, the Republican nominee, will be the unhappy loser.

District 45—Marian Van Landingham, long serving Democrat from Alexandria retired due to her battle with cancer.  David Englin won the Democrat nomination to replace her and is almost certain to defeat his Republican challenger Chris Gregerson.

District 75—This sprawling Southside district had a very spirited Democrat primary to select the nominee to run in place of the retiring incumbent Paul Council.  Roslyn Tyler, the winner of that primary, looked to the Republicans as the one Democrat they could defeat. It now appears Carson Saunders, the Republican nominee, as popular as he is, can’t overcome the normally democratic tendencies of the district especially with the way the statewide gubernatorial race is going.

District 84—This part of Virginia Beach is so solidly Republican that even a poor GOP Gubernatorial campaign won’t help the Democrat nominee, Supriya Christopher.  In addition, the Republican candidate, Sal R. Iaquinto, will be helped since the retiring incumbent, Bob McDonnell, is on the statewide ticket for Attorney General and should pull a good vote for “the home town boy!”

District 99—The Northern Neck District has been represented by retiring Democrat   Al Pollard.  Robert Wittman, the Republican Candidate, is extremely popular and is currently leading in this swing district.  If the statewide race doesn’t impact too strongly on the turnout (and common wisdom is it won’t) then this district will change their representation from D to R as Linda Crandell, the Democrat nominee, loses by a fairly large margin.

The final upset that could happen is in the 68^th District where moderate Republican Katherine B. Waddell is challenging incumbent conservative Republican Bradley Marrs.  Katherine is running as an independent and in recent weeks has been picking up support from state moderate Republican groups and from national Republican Pro-Choice organizations (yes, there are such on the national scene!)

This one may hinge on how many Democrats who come to vote for Tim Kaine decide to also cast a ballot in the delegates where there is no D running. 

So the bottom line is come November 9 there could be a net gain of 3 for the Democrats and 1 for the Independents or a net loss of 4 for the GOP.  These races are going to be more fun to watch in the next 2 ½ weeks than the statewide ones.

 

Links to Previous Giesen Perspectives:

Sept. 16, 2005 Aug. 26, 2005 Aug. 19, 2005 July 7, 2005 June 8, 2005 May 27, 2005 April 7, 2005 March 10, 2005 February 21, 2005 February 14, 2005 February 8, 2005 January 31, 2005 January 15, 2005 December 23, 2004 November 19, 2004

 

 

© 2007 Eldon James & Associates, Inc.