The Giesen Perspective—and the State survives another election

 

Date:  November 9, 2005

THE STATEWIDE RACES

 Given as how every “politician”—current and former—has a bit of an ego, and we like to brag, would you please refer to the Giesen Perspective of October 21 or there abouts (Sometimes it takes us more than one day to get the Perspectives   distributed!).  It was entitled, “Fall Brings Football and Politics—to which are the People Listening?”  The final sentence in the first section read (just in case you can’t find your copy or your mental computer is as worn out as mine):

 If Kaine keeps up his momentum and the conservative Republicans sit on their hands (as I expect them to do) and a number of moderate Republicans vote for Potts (as I expect them to do) and Warner’s Influence helps motivate the local Democrats “to get out the vote” (as I expect it to do), then Tim Kaine will be Governor-elect on Nov. 9.

 It’s Nov. 9 and Tim Kaine is our Governor-elect.  How about that!  Now for some humble pie.  The number of votes which Russ Potts received was much smaller than I anticipated.  It would certainly appear there were a lot more people that thought and acted like a friend of mine who confessed, “Pete, I really like what Potts is saying.  He’s the only one making any real sense.  But, he can’t win and I don’t want to waste my vote, so I’ll probably vote for Kaine.”  Considering that Kaine received almost 52% of the votes cast and Potts only received 2.17% versus the 4% which some of the late polls showed he collecting, there were more of those I-don’t-want-to-waste-my-vote folks than I imagined.

 Secondly, more citizens exercised their right to vote than I expected.  The turnout was a smite lower than in the past several Gubernatorial elections but higher than I forecasted.  “Normal” turnout is about 50% of the registered voters.  Yesterday’s top statewide race (the Governor’s) was 44.4%.  The other statewide races trailed this by about a percentage point.

 Except for these two factors, the other conditions which I felt would influence the outcome of the election fell into place and thus Kaine emerged the victor.   

 

THE OTHER TWO STATEWIDE RACES

 

THE LT. GOVERNOR

By the calculations of those of us who were willing to express our expectations on these races, Bill Bolling and Bob McDonnell should both have been easily elected.  This didn’t happen.  Despite their very strong head starts and their much healthier campaign treasuries, both ended up with narrow victories. Bill Bolling will be the next Lt. Governor but his margin was anything but a “mandate.”  While Bill did receive a majority (50.5%) of the votes cast his opponent, Leslie Byrne, was considered by a number of the political observers around the state as the weakest of the Democrat nominees.  Many stated as much after Leslie unexpectedly won the Democrat primary.  This former Congresswoman received 49.3% of the total votes while there were an unusually large number of people (4040, 0.21%[1]) who took the time to write-in someone else for this office.  This was more than double the number of write-ins for either of the other statewide races.  Does this say something about BOTH candidates?

ATTORNEY GENERAL

At this writing, the leader, Delegate Bob McDonnell, has not issued an acceptance speech (though he has publicly claimed victory) and the “trailer”, State Senator, Creigh Deeds, has not issued a concession one.  This one is really still “TOO CLOSE TO CALL.” The State Board of Election web-site still shows 3 precincts missing—2 for James City County where the other 14 reported precincts gave McDonnell a 55% vote and 1 precinct in Richmond City where the voters in the other 67 precincts gave Deeds a whopping 70.4% advantage.

So this could get even closer than the 1482 votes now separating the candidates (Richmond’s missing precinct is reportedly larger than the two in James City County).  Mind you that is 1482 votes out of a total of 1,938,389 cast in the 2423 precincts reported so far.  Now consider two additional factors—there were 1654 write-ins in this election—and there are 2426 precincts in Virginia.  The margin is six-tenths of a vote per precinct.  Are you sure one vote doesn’t count?  I believe if you ask Creigh Deeds, he might tell you every vote counts.[2]

In the days of the paper ballots, a recount of this race would be fun to watch (well very interesting anyway).  With our modern, mechanical and touch style voting equipment, the possibility of a different result is remote.  So those last three precincts are most important.  Now remember, even if the results did change the results and Creigh Deeds wins, picking 2 out of 3 correct isn’t too bad!

 

THE HOUSE OF DELEGATES RACES

 

The TV media concentrated on the statewide races while the “lesser races” were shown on the bottom of your home screens.  But Governor Warner, as he appeared at the Kaine victory rally (no, I wasn’t there I just watched it on TV!), made it a point to stress that the Democrats had picked up “seats” in the House of Delegates races.  He was a little inaccurate.  The Democrats had a net gain of one seat in the House and if the results in the 68^th District hold up in a recount, which is certain to be requested, the Independent caucus will increase from two to three.  So the Republicans will probably be down by two to 59 and the Democrats “up” by one to thirty-eight.  Now, now, those of you who really did read my Oct. 21 G.P. carefully, remember I said “…there could be a net gain of 3 for the Democrats and 1 for the Independents or a net loss of 4 for the GOP.” Don’t you think that was a good hedge word—could?

The Governor did emphasize this is the fifth straight election (including two special elections) in which the Democrats have picked up at least one seat in the House.  Is the pendulum swinging back to the Democrats or just back to the center?

Republicans picked up seats when the National Democrat Party swung to the left (shades of McGovern!); the Democrats did likewise when the Republican Party went too far to the right (shades of Goldwater!).  So just where does that put Virginia now?  Heading back to the center?

 

THE DISTRICTS WHICH WILL CHANGE PARTY REPRESENTATION

 

District 6—Bland County and parts of Giles, Pulaski, Wythe and Tazewell Counties—Incumbent Democrat Benny Keister carried Giles and Pulaski Counties, but not by enough to overcome Republican challenger Anne Crockett-Stark’s margins in Tazewell, Wythe and Bland and she will now carry the banner for this Central-Southwest Virginia District.  Reports are Anne is an independent thinker and will represent her district in the true “mountain-valley Republican tradition.”

District 32—Part of Loudoun County—whether it was the impact of the happenings in D.C. or his popularity (it was probably a combination of both), Democrat Challenger, David Poisson, garnered 53.0% of the vote to unseat ultra-conservative Republican Richard H. Black who had held the seat since 1998.

District 41—Part of Fairfax County—this open seat (after Republican Delegate Jim Dillard, a 31 year veteran legislator, chose to retire) was won by the Democrat nominee, Dave Marsden (59.27% of the vote).  This was predicted by some wise prognosticator.  Of course it wasn’t difficult since Dave worked for Jim as an aide and was endorsed by this popular Republican. This does result in the loss of a moderate Republican voice in the House Republican Caucus.

District 67—Parts of Fairfax and Loudoun Counties—Incumbent moderate Republican Gary Reese lost in the Republican Primary to the reportedly very conservative Chris S. Craddock.   Chris won’t get to exercise his brand of conservatism in the General Assembly.  The Democrat, Chuck Caputo, took 56.19% of the votes in a relatively small turnout.  Only 39.32 of the registered voters in the district cast their ballots.  This small turnout in a district close to Washington makes one wonder, “Were the people turned off by the happenings in D.C. or was there just a poor get-out-the-vote effort?”  So the citizens of the 67^th District will now be represented by a Democrat instead of a moderate Republican.

District 68—Part of Chesterfield County and Part of Richmond City—the closest of all the delegate races.  At this writing the two candidates are separated by 44 votes out of 26,881 votes.  Katherine Waddell, the moderate Republican who ran as an Independent, has 13,423 votes (49.93%) and the incumbent conservative Republican, Brad Marrs, has 13,379 (49.77%).  There were 79 write-ins which you will notice is greater than the difference separating the two major candidates.  All of the absentee votes are included in these totals. 

The only difference could be the “provisional votes—(those people who show up to vote but are not shown on the books but swear they should be able to vote are allowed to do so with a sworn statement including the pertinent information on their status as a voter.  The local Board of Elections then has to determine if the sealed paper ballot should be allowed.  If it is allowed it is then opened and counted. In the Presidential election last year there were approximately 7000 provisional ballots cast statewide of which 16% were ultimately allowed and counted.  I could not determine if there are any provisional ballots in the 68^th.  The State Board of Elections has not gotten a report from the local registrars.)

There obviously will be a recount on this election.  The official count will be declared on November 28 and then the loser has 10 days in which to request the recount.  Since the difference is less the 0.5% the localities will have to bear the expense of the recount. 

District 99—The Counties of King George, Lancaster, Northumberland, Richmond, Westmoreland, and part of Caroline.—As predicted the very popular Republican candidate, Robert Wittman, will replace the retiring Democrat, Al Pollard.  Wittman carried 29 of 34 precincts and had 61.57% of the total votes.  He outpolled the top of the ticket Republicans in every jurisdiction and carried the Caroline County precincts in the 99^th and all of Westmoreland County where Kaine had the majority.  You see voters in Virginia do vote for people and not necessarily for the candidates of a certain party.

There were other delegate races that were close but these were the only ones where party representation will change.  The other threatened incumbents “held on” although there were some close calls

 

LEGISLATORS ATTENTION NOW TURNS BACK TO GOVERNING

 

 Even though the General Assembly has actually continued to work through committees and joint study groups since its adjournment earlier this year, with the elections over it is turning its full attention to the task of getting ready for the ’06 session.  This Thursday (November 10) there are no less than nine different Commissions or Joint Study Committees meeting around the state (seven of them in the General Assembly Building (GAB).

Then on Monday (after the legislators take Veterans Day as a Holiday along with state employees) there will be an additional seven groups meeting at the GAB.  Tuesday of next week the money committees start their “Retreats!”  The House Appropriations Committee will meet for two days (Tuesday and Wednesday) at The National Conference Center in Lansdown, VA.  The full membership of the House is invited and a goodly number will probably attend.  On Thursday and Friday—Nov. 17 and 18—the Senate Finance Committee (who actually started these types of meetings) will hold its Retreat at the Radisson in Hampton.  Last year 38 of the 40 Senators attended this function. 

At both of these gatherings the members are provided with a basket full of information and the stage is usually set for the direction the committees will take come the budget deliberations during the session.  Because of the growing importance of the information shared and the discussion which take place, these two “retreats” are well attended by legislative liaisons, lobbyists, advocates, and interested citizens.  All sessions are open to the public, so the media comes and gives some coverage to events.  They, however, use the material distributed and the comments made as “background” data for future stories. 

 

TRANSPORTATION

 

This continues to be the central issue for the coming GA Session.  The Governor-Elect has already indicated he will travel the state and hold town meetings to get the ideas of the public on the transportation crisis.  The Senate’s START group will meet Friday next (Nov. 18) in Hampton following the Finance Committee’s retreat.

Mark Warner’s recently appointed Commission on Transportation in Urbanized Areas met election-day with a very full agenda.  This Governor knows how to appoint hard driving chairs of his various commissions.  Randy Wright is giving every indication that this commission will have recommendations to the Governor by mid-December.  With the results of the Governor’s race the commission’s report may not gather dust on a shelf in a remote administration office.

 

THE IMPACT OF THE ELECTION ON TRANSPORTATION ISSUES

 

One impact of this election on how the state might give attention to this major issue is noted above.  The preliminary work that the Warner administration has put forth on Transportation will probably get much more attention from a Kaine Administration than it might have otherwise. 

It is the Legislature which will eventually have to act on the Transportation Issue if anything significant is to happen.  As we’ve discussed in the past there are separate studies being done by the two houses.  The House is trying to figure out how to fix the highway problems without raising taxes and the Senate is looking at a broader picture with a much heavier emphasis on mass transit. In fact some of the Senators are talking about an exclusively passenger rail system owned by the state.  Now that would be a new approach.  I don’t believe this concept has been discussed since the early beginnings of the railroads in Virginia. 

In the meantime, however, let’s speculate a little about how the election results might influence the thinking of the legislators.  The major base of the “take over” of the General Assembly by the Republicans in the nineties came out of Northern Virginia.  The suburbs of Fairfax County, Prince William County, and Loudoun County were “solid Republican strong holds.”  The major urban areas—Arlington County and Alexandria—could always be counted on to go for Democrats.  Did the results Tuesday change this situation? Is there a shift in demographics?

Fairfax County voted 60.17% for Kaine; Loudoun, 51.31%; Prince William 49.97% while the past “urban votes” of Arlington and Alexandria gave the Governor-elect 74.24% and 71.93% of their votes.  So what is happening?  It would certainly appear the “suburbs” of Fairfax, Prince William and Loudoun have now been urbanized and the suburbs have moved further south to Stafford, Spotsylvania, Culpeper and Fauquier. For the Republican House Caucus this poses a real dilemma.  Do we try to relieve the highway congestion with more construction and “urbanize” more of NOVA to our political detriment?  Will an improved mass transit system continue to move the suburbs further out and cause us to loose more of our Republican base?  Or were there other factors at work in this election?  But then Kerry carried Fairfax as did Mark Warner and now Kaine.  Has the largest municipality in the Commonwealth become a “solid” Democrat stronghold?  Would an improved transportation system continue this trend?

These are all questions which I suspect are now on the minds of the GOP Caucus Leadership.  It very well may impact their thinking on how to fix the transportation crisis.  More conversation on the possible fall out from this election may be approached (privately, of course) at the Appropriation Committee Retreat next week.

On the other side of the capitol, the Senate’s approach won’t be changed any because of this election.  At least that is my take.  But again more may be learned in conversations next week.

 

THE REVENUE PICTURE

 

Daily receipts in the state treasury continue strong.  In September the General Fund (GF) collections were 11.2% above last Sept. and the year-to-date figure was 14.5%.  The three big factors in this unusual growth are still individual non- withholding, corporate income taxes and recordation taxes.  Secretary of Finance, John Bennett cautions the money committees that there is no precedent for this kind of growth and it will slow down “soon.”  However, collections for October, while still totally “unofficial”, are reported to be in the double digit range.  Receipts for the first 10 days of November have moderated, but not significantly. 

More up-to-date information should be available at the “RETREATS!”

 

Links to Previous Giesen Perspectives:

Oct. 21, 2005 Sept. 16, 2005 Aug. 26, 2005 Aug. 19, 2005 July 7, 2005 June 8, 2005 May 27, 2005 April 7, 2005 March 10, 2005 February 21, 2005 February 14, 2005 February 8, 2005 January 31, 2005 January 15, 2005 December 23, 2004 November 19, 2004

 

 

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