The Giesen Perspective—and the State survives another election

 

DATE:           Wednesday, December 21, 2005

 

THE ELECTIONS ARE BEHIND US—OR ARE THEY?

 

Normally after our odd year elections, things settle down and people can concentrate on the governing part of our process.  But 2005 was anything but a normal election year.  A third candidate for governor, upsets in the governor’s race, an historically close race for Attorney General, an independent winner in a House of Delegates race decided by 42 votes (less than the number of write-ins), and now special elections all over the place. 

 

By the time you read this--and hopefully it is different enough from all those e-mail news reports you receive from numerous sources so that you will read it!—you will know that recounts in statewide elections rarely change the results.  Though I have no inside information—the courts don’t “leak” information like Governors do—the method of recounting the votes in the Attorney General’s race would clearly indicate that Bob McDonnell will hold his winning margin which stood at 323 votes when the process began.  That final number might vary some, but not by much.  So the odds are Delegate Robert F. McDonnell of Virginia Beach will become the forty-fourth Attorney General of Virginia. 

 

FLASH—before the distribution of this Giesen Perspective the final results are in—McDonnell picks up 37 votes and wins by 360 votes.  The media keeps reporting this as the closest race in Virginia’s history.  This is only true for statewide races.  There have actually been ties in House of Delegates and local races.

 

MUSICAL CHAIRS?

 

So what will be the make-up of the 2006 General Assembly?  Well, at this point it is not totally clear.  There are now two special elections called by the Governor for January 3^rd.  One is to fill the vacancy in the State Senate (the 4^th District—north and east of Richmond) created by the resignation of Lt. Governor-elect William T. “Bill” Bolling.  On the House side, Delegate Jackie T. Stump from the 3^rd House District in Southwest Virginia created a vacancy when he decided to resign due to his battle with cancer. 

 

Both of these races will be a challenge for the candidates.  The Senate seat covers a large territory with lots of rivers to cross, and the House district has some of the toughest mountain terrain in the state.  So the betting here in the capital city is the party candidates have the best chances to win.  In the 4^th Senate District, Delegate Ryan T. McDougle has the Republican nomination.  His current 97^th House District covers a good part of the Senatorial District and while this is not a slam dunk, the betting is he will win over the Democrat nominee, Roger G. Cavendish.

 

In the 3^rd House District, there are four candidates.  The Democrat, Danny C. “Dan” Bowling is favored to win this heavily democrat district.  He resides in North Tazewell County.  His Republican opponent is T. Shea Cook from Richlands which is also in North Tazewell County.  Then there are two independents.  One, G. L. “Jerry” Elkins, has a Raven address (which is only about two miles west of Richlands in Tazewell County) but as I understand it, he actually lives in Buchanan County where the bulk of the voters reside.  Then there is R. Brian Wright from Swords Creek (don’t you just love these Southwest Virginia community names?).  Now Swords Creek is on the Clinch River about 4 miles west of Raven (8 miles by road) but is in Russell County.  See, this is a mountainous district! A four way, short race could confound the “experts,” but I doubt it.

 

There will be another special election on Jan. 10 to fill the vacated 23^rd House District seat.  Governor-elect Tim Kaine necessitated this by appointing Delegate Preston Bryant to his cabinet (see below).  This area in central Virginia (Lynchburg and part of Amherst County) is really a swing district.  It will be an interesting race to watch.  Candidates have to file their applications with the State Board of Elections by tomorrow.  Some people are going to have a very busy Christmas and New Years “holiday season.”

 

THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY MAKE-UP

 

As of this writing the House of Delegates has officially 58 Republican members, 37 Democrats, 3 Independents and the two vacancies noted above.  The Senate has 23 Republicans and 16 Democrats with the one vacancy.  Now if Ryan McDougle wins the vacant Senate seat, there will have to be another special election.  The timing on this one will be determined by Speaker Howell.  It will probably be a quickie--later in January or early in February.

 

Can you picture what might happen if Governor-elect Tim Kaine sees the opportunities to appoint other Republican legislators to agency positions?  Could the pendulum start to swing in the Democrats’ favor?  (He will have to make these appointments after the GA goes home so he gets to control when the elections are held.) You do remember, of course, when Governor Jim Gilmore used this tactic to bring the legislative representation into “balance” between the parties.  Some “observers” here in Richmond are speculating actions by Kaine could bring the legislative houses closer to that same balance

 

Then there are rumors that Bob McDonnell will offer his good friend, Senator Bill Mims, 33^rd District—Loudoun County—a position in the Attorney General’s office.  So there would be another “special election.”  Then if one of the delegates in that Senate District ran for the open Senate seat (unlikely but possible)—you get the picture.  This could go on into the summer!

 

THE ASSEMBLY’S WORKLOAD

 

The leadership of the Assembly has tried several rule changes in the past to slow down the ever increasing workload of the legislature.  One of those was to limit the number of bills a delegate (5) or a senator (8) could introduce during session IF the bill wasn’t “prefiled.”  A prefiled bill is one which has been requested from the Division of Legislative Services, drafted, reviewed and introduced by 10 am on the morning the General Assembly convenes.  A deadline was then set for requests for drafting legislation which delegates or senators intended to prefile.  Well, the members have caught on.  This effort to reduce the legislation to be considered is not working too well this year.  In fact one might say it isn’t working at all, at all!  The Division received 3300 requests before the 5pm December 12 deadline for drafting prefiled bills!  Thirteen hundred of these requests were received on the 12^th. 

 

The Division’s director, E. M. Miller, anticipates there will be over 4,000 requests for legislation!  Then there is that $72 billion dollar budget to consider.  Oh well, so much for an easy long session.

 

THE NEXT ADMINISTRATION—IT’S TAKING SHAPE

 

Governor-elect Kaine went right to work following his impressive election.  He quickly announced his transition team and the group which will plan his historic inauguration.  Now I say, “quickly”, but does one get the impression he had a feeling for several weeks that he would be in a position to do just that?  Then in a week and a day he started announcing his major staff appointments.  Both his Chief of Staff and his Deputy Chief of Staff come right out of the Warner Administration.  Bill Leighty will continue as the Governor’s CoS and Wayne Turnage, who will serve as Bill’s deputy, moves over from the Dept. of Medical Assistance Services (DMAS) where he has been Director of Policy and Research.  He also has served as Advisor to the Governor for Special Projects.

 

These individuals are both very knowledgeable about state government processes and handling the multitude of public inquiries which come directly to the Governor’s Office.  They will help make Kaine’s transition a much smoother one than if he had placed some of his campaign staff in these positions.  Bill Leighty’s appointment is almost reminiscent of the latter years of the Byrd Machine when the Commonwealth had a “little Governor” by the name of Carter Lowance.  He served as the CoS for six successive democrat governors including Mills Godwin’s first term (as a Democrat).  Then he took a short vacation during Lin Holton’s four years and came back to serve Republican Governor Mills Godwin.  One wonders if Bill Leighty, another good “man behind the scenes type,” is starting the same kind of legacy?

 

THE GOVERNOR’S CABINET—HE’S HALF WAY THERE

 

The Governor’s Cabinet consists of twelve appointed positions in addition to the CoS, who attends the meetings and in the absence of the Governor actually presides.  Under Warner this group met on a weekly basis, and according to some sources Leighty presided about half of the time.  To date Tim has announced six of his selections for cabinet-level people.  (Unlike some news stories carried by several large state papers these are not all secretarial appointments but are cabinet level positions.)

 

Here are the people Kaine has announced with some of my priceless commentary.  Well, OK, just some comments from someone who has observed the goings and comings of Administrations for almost half a century—my Mother first ran for the House of Delegates in 1957!) 

 

Secretary of Public Safety, John W. Marshall, will continue in that position.  This former Virginia State Trooper has a BS from Georgetown University in government and a post baccalaureate certificate in administration of justice from VCU.  He headed the U.S. Marshals Service under President Clinton (he has good Democrat credentials) and is an African-American.  He helps Kaine fulfill his promise to have diversity in his cabinet, plus he again gives him good transition in the important area of public safety.

 

Robert P. Crouch, who will be Kaine’s Assistant to the Governor for Commonwealth Preparedness, will also help in the continuity area.  He has served Warner as his Counselor (he has his law degree from UVA) and served as the U.S. Attorney for the Western District of Virginia as a Clinton appointee.  Bob has good credentials and will be good in this cabinet level position.

 

The current Treasurer of Virginia will become the first woman to serve as Virginia’s Secretary of Finance.  Jody Wagner was appointed Treasurer of the
Commonwealth by Warner in 2002.  She ran an unsuccessful campaign for Congress in 2000 (against Edward L. Shrock, who was later replaced by Thelma Drake in the 2^nd Congressional District). She has experience as a corporate securities attorney and thus comes to this position well-versed in state debt management and revenue generation.  However, she lacks experience in the budgeting intricacies of the $72 Billion dollar biennial budget.  She also has not had a lot of contact with legislators or in appearing before the money committees.  People around the capital who have worked with her indicate she is a fast learner (and she will have to be since this is a key position in any administration).  She is said to be very articulate and one who can think on her feet very effectively.  Again, these are traits which will be tested by the questioning she will receive when she appears before the House Appropriations Committee and the Senate Finance Committee—and these appearances will be frequent and will start almost from day one of the Kaine Administration.

 

Fortunately for Ms. Wagner, Ric Brown has agreed to continue as the Director of the Department of Planning and Budget (DPB).  Ric has almost 35 years of experience in various state government positions and started with DPB the first year it was formed, 1976.  He is probably as knowledgeable about the state budget and how it is put together as anyone in state government.  Kaine was wise to make the announcement of Ric’s reappointment at the same time he announced Jody Wagner’s.  This combination of appointments will give the financial community comfort about the continuity of the Warner budget strategies which they have applauded over the four years of his administration.  It had been rumored that Ric might retire with his 35 years of creditable service in the Virginia Retirement System.  However, he quipped at the news conference that the Governor-elect was very persuasive. The Director of DPB is not a cabinet post, but I’ll bet Ric will be sitting in on a lot of the cabinet meetings right behind the new Secretary.

 

The second woman appointed by Kaine is Marilyn Tavenner as Secretary of Health and Human Resources -- a Henry County native who did her nurse’s training at Roanoke Memorial Hospital, where Marilyn garnered experience at the clinical level. Then through hard work and good education pursuits (she has her masters in Hospital Administration from MCV/VCU), she advanced to a top administrative position in a Fortune 500 company, the Hospital Corporation of America.  People who have worked with and for her all give her high praise.  She is extremely smart, is straight forward, listens, asks good questions then makes quick but good decisions, and will give you a direct answer.  She is a very strong appointment. There has been some concern in the Health Care Community about her HCA background and the published report about her ownership of some 26,000 shares of HCA stock.   A very reliable source noted recently that she will divest herself of all of this stock and will have no stock in any health care company by the time she is sworn in to her cabinet position.

 

Kaine has continued to keep his diversity theme with his two most recent cabinet appointments.  Delegate L. Preston Bryant, Jr. (who has good mountain-Valley Republican traits—shades of Tim’s father-in-law) takes over the Natural Resources Secretariat in the new administration.  One of the Republican leaders of the “17 problem-solving Republican delegates” in the 2004 session of the General Assembly, Preston handily beat an ultra-conservative challenger in the Republican primary this year and had no opposition in the General Election this fall.  He will be missed as one of the moderate leaders of this group of House Republicans during the 2006 session.  He does have good credentials for this post.  He has an engineering background with experience in land use planning, has sponsored successful legislation protecting nontidal wetlands, has served on the House Agriculture, Chesapeake and Natural Resources Committee, and has a sensitivity to the needs of the farming community.  In my opinion Preston will give this area balanced leadership and make sound policy decisions. 

 

The incoming Secretary of Technology brings two factors to Kaine’s “diverse cabinet”—youth (he is 33 years old!) and an Asian heritage. Aneesh Choprah’s family comes from New Delhi, India.  (On the youth side, don’t be too judgmental all you oldsters like me.  Remember Thomas Jefferson was only 33 when he wrote the Declaration of Independence.  And, oh yes, some people are elected to the House of Delegates when they are only 32!)  On the “heritage side”, Aneesh has some good intellectual credentials—a B.A. in Public Health from Johns Hopkins University and a Masters in Public Policy from the Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government.  The latter degree might give some pause for concern, but I can attest some people can go to Harvard and not be totally misdirected.  Aneesh, a Warner appointee to the Virginia Board of DMAS, initiated a pilot project to lower the administrative costs for Virginia’s Medicaid program by utilizing technology.  He also worked to lower costs as an appointee to the Governor’s Electronic Health Records Task Force.  Gosh, he’s beginning to sound like a member of the Republican cost cutting caucus!

 

….SIX MORE TO GO--

 

The Governor-elect will, he has promised, have more appointments ready to go when he returns from his Christmas vacation (to the Caribbean).  These appointments should be some time this coming week.  Yet to go are the Secretaries of Education, Commerce and Trade, Transportation, Administration, and Agriculture and Forestry.  The twelfth member of the cabinet is the Secretary of the Commonwealth, which is more of a political appointment than an executive/administrative position.  Rumor has it that Delegate Viola Baskerville, who did not run for reelection and lost her bid to be the Democrat nominee for Lt. Governor, would like to have this position.  She is on the transition team for Kaine and might well be his selection for this post. 

 

The present office holders for the remaining five secretarial slots would, I am told, be available for appointment by Kaine.  It wouldn’t surprise me if Kaine did appoint former Delegate Bob Bloxom to continue in the Agriculture and Forestry post.  As for the others, I just haven’t heard any “reliable” rumors or leaks.  With his emphasis on Transportation, my intuition tells me Tim Kaine will probably bring in a new face, altho Pierce Homer has been a good Secretary for Warner in the last year of his term.  Rather than speculate further, we’ll just wait for the “official word.”

 

THE BUDGET

 

Warner presented his caboose budget for the remainder of FY06 and his biennial budget for ’06-’08 on Friday the 16^th  of December.  No big surprises since most of the large items had already been “leaked.”  From the looks of my e-mails, everyone on this distribution list has received an analysis of the areas of the budget in which they are interested.  So at this point my perspectives will be short—isn’t that a relief?

 

The Governor was shrewd in his Transportation package.  The Senate is against using General Funds for Transportation, so His Excellency made the insurance tax proceeds which use to go to the General Fund a permanent funding source for the Transportation Trust Fund (TTF) a step the GA had made last year, but the Governor now makes it permanent.  This shift of funds provided $285.5 million in the biennium.  There will definitely be some arguments as to whether this is “new” money! Then this outgoing Governor simply put the balance of his new funding into one-time projects so he didn’t create any ongoing expectations for those who realize the TTF does need new sources of continuing funding.

 

There are many other areas of real interest in the budget which will be House/Senate Bills 30 (the Caboose bills are HB/SB 29).  The full text (535 pages) of the budget are on the Governor’s website. Look up the sections in which you might be interested; however, the items may not correspond to last year’s budget. This is a “new, more transparent budget” according to the administration’s pitch.  One indication is there are only 535 pages to this budget, and the Budget adopted by the legislature in the ’05 session was 675 pages.  The type size in both is the same, so we have made some progress.  Well maybe, but consider The Governor’s explanations for the ’04-’06 Budget he introduced in the ’05 session were 264 pages and the explanation for this new transparent budget is 925 pages!

 

Maybe, after people get familiar with the new format and the goals, etc., the budget and the reasons for appropriations will become easier to “explain”!

 

A very Merry Christmas and a Happy Holiday Season to everyone, and may 2006 be a productive, prosperous year.

 

Links to Previous Giesen Perspectives:

Nov. 9, 2005 Oct. 21, 2005 Sept. 16, 2005 Aug. 26, 2005 Aug. 19, 2005 July 7, 2005 June 8, 2005 May 27, 2005 April 7, 2005 March 10, 2005 February 21, 2005 February 14, 2005 February 8, 2005 January 31, 2005 January 15, 2005 December 23, 2004 November 19, 2004

 

 

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